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The narrative surrounding Tyler Wilson seems to include his potential. People see Arkansas, the coaching change there, his injury and his last year and think that he can be something in the NFL. I don’t have Wilson’s stats from last year but I have broken down his numbers from this year. I should say, when I analyze the prospects based off these metrics, I look for a few things.
- I look for red flags, anything that is extremely bad
- I look for elite traits, things that make a prospect stand out from the others
- I look for trends, are there any numbers that all fit together to paint a certain picture about a prospect
The reason I look for these specific things is because at least 50% of these stats are going to be similar to the other quarterbacks, but when we see trends, we know what to look for on tape. As always: these stats are based off of me watching game film and writing down the factors that go into a play. I marked down where the ball was caught, what the formation was, why the ball was incomplete and many more factors. In each section, I’m going to post the relevant chart and then make comments on it.
Where Does He Throw the Ball?
- Like Matt Barkley, Tyler Wilson threw a lot of short passes. Although he didn’t throw many screens, 40% of his passes were within 1-5 yards of the line of scrimmage. Combined with the screens, approximately 50% of his passes were within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage. Second only to Matt Barkley between this and last year’s classes.
- Not much in the 11-20 range. Like I’ve posted before, I consider the 11-20 yard range to be the sweet spot for the NFL. I like to see QBs hitting those intermediate to deep throws with good accuracy and frequently. Tyler Wilson threw there significantly less than the average QB from last year
- Average on deep balls. Part of the narrative on Tyler Wilson is that he has a weak arm. People during the Senior Bowl thought he didn’t have the ability to push the ball down the field. Clearly Wilson was confident enough to go there at least an average amount.
How Accurate Is He?
- He’s not very accurate at all. Here’s an instance where the media narrative is correct. His completion percentage past 5 yards is at least 4% points lower than the average quarterback. His completion percentage in the 11-20 range is only lower than Kirk Cousins from the last two QB classes.
- There’s almost nothing positive to take away from this. Even his 1-5 yard completion percentage is average. Other than screens, nothing is above average and nothing gives you the feeling that he could capitalize on having a good trait with at least one specific thing.
- His 20+ yard accuracy isn’t terrible. It’s higher than Tannehill’s was last year and is roughly equal to Geno Smith and Mike Glennon’s, but that’s nothing to be proud of. It’s still below average
Where Are His Incompletions Coming From?
- They’re coming on underthrows. At this point, we’re seeing one of those trends I mentioned. Almost 11.5% of his passes are underthrown. Combined with the lack of ability down field, we really have to wonder about his ability to get the ball down the field. At this point, the stats confirm the narrative.
- His wide receivers did drop more balls than average. In my experience, WRs drop around 6% of balls on average. Wilson’s WRs were around 7%, which tells us his WRs weren’t giving him a lot of help.
Any Other Red Flags/Positives?
- While Wilson was successful on around 80% of his passes in the pistol, his completion percentage under center was an abysmal 39%. You have to see better numbers than that for someone who’s going to have to take at least 50% of his snaps from under center in the NFL.
- 38% of his yardage came in the 4th quarter. This is either a good thing or a bad thing. Either he was clutch in the 4th quarter or the team was so often behind that he had to throw a significant amount in the 4th. Given the Arkansas record this year, we can most likely conclude that he just had to throw it to stay alive.
People want to like Tyler Wilson because they want to find the “dark horse” in this class. I don’t think Tyler Wilson is the dark horse here at all. While he did have a huge shift in coaches during his final year at Arkansas, I don’t see how that could affect his ability to throw down field. Given the trend of low completion percentages down field and the underthrows, I don’t see Wilson being able to translate his game to the NFL.
Unless a team wants to throw 50% of their passes within 5 yards of the LOS, I don’t see Wilson being able to succeed in a real system. You can form your own opinions based on the data, but I don’t see him as a particularly draftable QB.
**If you’ve liked this, you can follow me at Follow @NU_Gap. I have approximately one follower right now, since I just started this up. I do work pretty much every day breaking down prospects and I’ll be tweeting out interesting stats that I come across (today I found out Justin Hunter drops ~10% of his passes), future articles/breakdowns (Dysert, Nassib, Manuel post upcoming), or let you know when I post new things (hopefully a WR post soon) . Thanks a lot!
-Second Round Stats